Work package 3 is working on the physical and economic impacts of land subsidence. Furthermore, it bridges the gap between knowledge of impacts of land subsidence and decision-making. WP3 has a focus on numerical model development and (big) data analyses and includes geomodelling, material science research and economic modelling.

The first aim of this work package is to provide spatial forecasts for subsidence under different management scenarios through predictive modelling. This is done by integrating subsidence process models into one numerical framework. The second aim is to develop new methods to estimate subsidence-related damages, for example to infrastructure, buildings and agricultural production. The third aim is to translate these impacts of land subsidence into costs and benefits in order to evaluate possible management strategies at a regional scale through a Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA). The work package is divided into three subprojects (WP3.1-3.3), which each focus on one of these three aims. WP3.1 (Utrecht University) will focus on predictive modelling of land subsidence, WP3.2 (TU Delft) is concerned with damage assessment of buildings and infrastructure and WP3.3 (Wageningen University) works on economic modelling and an SCBA of possible mitigation measures.

Combining the inputs of these three subprojects, this work package will develop a set of reliable, alternative-scenario-sensitive spatial forecasts for actual and projected subsidence rates, including modules estimating costs and benefits. These results will be used as operational tools to inform and engage with decision makers on options to mitigate soil subsidence.

The people involved in this work package are:

• Work package leader: dr. H.P. Weikard (WUR)
• WP3.1: Postdoc – dr. Deniz Kılıç (UU), Supervision – dr. E. Stouthamer (UU), dr. H. Kooi (Deltares)
• WP3.2: PhD – Alfonso Prosperi, MSc (TUD), Supervision – Prof. dr. ir. J. Rots (TUD), dr. M. Korff (TUD/Deltares), ir. P.A. Korswagen (TUD)
• WP3.3: PhD – Dewy Verhoeven, MSc (WUR), Supervision – dr. H.P. Weikard (WUR)

Subprojects:

• WP3.1 -Predictive modelling of the land subsidence
• WP3.2 – Damage assessment for buildings and infrastructure
• WP3.3 – An economic analysis of soil subsidence mitigation